Premier League outright betting: winner, relegation and top scorer
In short
An outright bet is a bet on the outcome of the entire season, rather than on an individual match. For the Premier League, that means the title winner, the clubs who get relegated, the season's top scorer, and the clubs who qualify for European football. Arsenal are the defending champions for the 2026/27 season, after winning their first Premier League title in 22 years in 2025/26. This page explains how each of these outright markets works, and how the odds develop across a season of 38 matchdays, from the first matchday to the last. Whether it is the title race at the top of the table or the relegation battle at the bottom, the same basic odds principles sit behind every outright market.
| Outright market | What it covers |
|---|---|
| Title | Which club finishes top after 38 matchdays |
| Relegation | Which three clubs finish 18th, 19th and 20th |
| Top scorer | The Golden Boot: most league goals in the season |
| European qualification | Which clubs reach the Champions League, Europa League or Conference League |
Title betting: who wins the Premier League?
With title betting, you bet on which club finishes the season at the top of the table. Because that outcome depends on 38 matchdays rather than a single match, the odds are built on an implied probability that stretches across the whole season: the greater the assessed chance that a club wins the title, the lower the odds. That assessment keeps changing along with results: a club on a strong winning run usually sees its title odds shorten, while a club losing ground on the leader after a few disappointing results sees its odds lengthen. Early in the season, the odds for several clubs are still relatively close together, since there are still few results to base the assessment on. As the season progresses and the points gap between the clubs at the top becomes clearer, the odds adjust accordingly and usually spread further apart. Want to know which clubs have historically won the most Premier League titles, and how the title race has unfolded over the years? Our page on the Premier League champions goes deeper into that, including the question of which clubs have never been relegated from the top flight.
Relegation betting: who goes down from the Premier League?
At the other end of the table sits the relegation market: a bet on which three clubs finish the season being relegated to the lower division. This market shows just how volatile a season can be. On the final matchday of 2025/26, Tottenham Hotspur narrowly escaped relegation, while West Ham United (after fourteen years in the top flight), Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers did go down. Outcomes like that can stay open right up to the last matchday, which makes the relegation market just as interesting for many players as the title race, even though it plays out at the opposite end of the table. The odds in this market move with results at the bottom of the table: a club that puts together a few consecutive wins usually sees its relegation odds lengthen (less likely to be relegated), while a club going through a poor run sees its odds shorten. Just as with the title race, the further the season progresses, the more sharply the odds usually reflect the actual standings, though a twist remains possible right up to the final matchday, as the example of Tottenham in 2025/26 shows. For more on exactly how promotion and relegation work in the Premier League, see our guide to how the league format works.
Want the full mechanics behind promotion, relegation and the points system? Read our guide to how the Premier League works.
Top scorer betting (Golden Boot)
Beyond the title and relegation, you can also bet on the season's top scorer, the winner of the Golden Boot. This award goes to the player with the most league goals across the whole season; if multiple players finish with exactly the same number of goals, the award is shared. The odds in this market move with each candidate's scoring rate: an attacker scoring in match after match usually sees his Golden Boot odds shorten, while a longer spell without a goal leads to lengthening odds. Early in the season, an individual player's scoring rate can still swing sharply because only a limited number of matches have been played, which makes this market especially volatile in the first months of the season. Want to know more about how goalscoring stats are tracked, and which players have historically posted the best numbers in the Premier League? Our page on the Premier League top scorers covers the all-time goalscoring record and the context behind it, as a complement to this season's live Golden Boot race. The broader stats behind a top scorer, such as assists and minutes played, are also covered there. A forward who often comes on as a substitute rather than playing the full match can, in addition, post a different scoring rate per minute played than his total goal count alone might suggest, which sometimes makes the Golden Boot race less straightforward than a simple goal count.
European qualification: top 5, Champions League and Europa League
Alongside the title, relegation and top scorer markets, outright markets also exist around European qualification: which clubs finish high enough to reach the Champions League, the Europa League or the Europa Conference League. The classic rule awards a place to each of the highest-placed clubs according to their final position, but since the Champions League expanded to 36 clubs from the 2024/25 season, an extra place also exists, the so-called "European Performance Spot", for the two countries that collectively performed best in European club competition the previous season. Those two countries are determined by a coefficient based on the results of their clubs across the Champions League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League combined. If the Premier League is one of those two best-performing countries in a given season, that extra Champions League place goes to the club that finishes highest in the table just below the directly qualified places. That makes the exact line between a Champions League place and a Europa League place, in certain seasons, less fixed than the classic top four or top five rule alone would suggest, and it depends on that particular season's coefficient calculation. Which club ends up claiming that extra place for a given season is therefore only confirmed once that season has finished.
How do outright odds change during the season?
Outright odds move through the season along with results, but not at a fixed pace. Early in the season, with relatively few matches played, odds can swing sharply after just a few results, because every match represents a larger share of the available information at that point. As more matchdays are completed and the points gaps in the table become clearer, odds usually settle down, although a twist in the final matchdays remains possible, as the 2025/26 relegation battle showed. Some players deliberately track how odds early in the season differ from odds later on, when only a few matches have been played and the table still says little about the rest of the season. That is not a guarantee of a more favourable outcome, just a different phase of the season to place an outright bet in, with a different balance between uncertainty and potential payout than a bet placed only in the closing months of the season. This dynamic applies to every outright market above: title, relegation, top scorer and European qualification each move at their own pace, depending on how much clarity exists in the table at that point.
Combining: outrights within a Bet Builder style combination
Just as with markets within a single match, at Napoleon Sports you can also combine several outright selections into one ticket. That could, for example, be a combination of a title bet on one club with a relegation bet on another, or a combination of an outright selection with a regular match bet. Combining several selections into a ticket increases the potential odds of the combination compared with each individual selection, but it also requires every individual selection in the combination to have the correct outcome: if one part of the combination goes wrong, the whole ticket is lost, even if the other selections were correct. With an outright selection in a combination, that selection is usually only settled after the season ends, which means the whole ticket stays open for that long. How many selections a combination contains determines both the potential odds and the risk of the ticket: more selections means higher potential odds, but also a smaller chance that every individual part comes in correctly, especially when several long-running outright markets are included in the same combination. A combination with both an outright selection and a regular match bet also links two different timeframes together: the match bet is settled after ninety minutes, while the outright selection stays open until the end of the season, even once the rest of the ticket has long been decided.
Why bet outright markets with Napoleon Sports?
At Napoleon Sports you will find the full outright offer for the Premier League in one place: title betting, relegation betting, top scorer betting and European qualification markets, alongside the regular match offer. Napoleon Sports holds a licence from the Belgian Gaming Commission, guaranteeing a legal, regulated betting environment for players aged 21 and over. Through the app you follow how the outright odds develop through the season, from the first matchday to the last, and place your bets from your smartphone at any moment of the day. Some outright selections also offer the option of Cash Out, where you can settle a running bet early at a value calculated at that moment. Create an account, download the app from the App Store or Google Play, and check our current Premier League promotions and welcome offers in the offers section. Register today to view the full outright offer, and follow this season's title race, relegation battle and Golden Boot race from start to finish. Would you rather build your own assessment of the match odds first, before looking at the longer term? Our guide to how to bet on the Premier League starts from that basis. For players aged 21 and over only.