Premier League odds explained

Decimal odds: how do you work out your potential payout?

Most sportsbooks in Belgium, including Napoleon Sports, use decimal odds. To work out your potential payout, you multiply your stake by the odds. Higher odds mean a larger potential payout for the same stake, but they also mean the bookmaker judges that outcome to be less likely at the moment the odds are set. Lower odds work the other way round: a smaller potential payout for the same stake, reflecting an outcome the bookmaker considers more likely. The odds that count for your bet are always the ones showing at the moment you confirm your selection. After that, they do not change for that specific selection, even if the odds for other players keep moving afterwards. The real, current odds for a specific Premier League match can always be found in the live offer, never on this explainer page. The same calculation applies to every market, from the classic match result to an over/under market or an outright bet: multiply the stake by the odds of the chosen selection to know your potential payout.

Favourite versus underdog: what do the odds tell you?

Lower odds point to a favourite, higher odds point to an underdog. That reflects how the bookmaker assesses the probability of each outcome at that moment, but it guarantees nothing about the actual result: an underdog can win, and a favourite can lose. In a fixture between a club that usually finishes high in the table and a side that has just been promoted, the odds for the established club are usually lower, reflecting the balance of power as it is assessed at that time. Even so, the Premier League is known for its competitiveness: every season there are matches where a team clearly favoured by the odds fails to get past a well-organised opponent. That applies both to matches at the top of the table and to matches in the relegation battle, where every matchday can make a difference for the rest of the season. Odds are therefore an assessment at a given moment, based on the information available at that time, not a prediction of what actually happens on the pitch ninety minutes later. That also explains why an underdog sometimes comes surprisingly close to a result against an established top club: the odds weigh the average balance of power, not the exact course of one individual match on a given day.

1X2, double chance and the Bet Builder

Several markets usually come together for every Premier League match, each with its own odds. The 1X2 market is the classic market on a home win, a draw, or an away win over ninety minutes plus stoppage time. The double chance market combines two of those three possible outcomes into a single selection, for example a home win or a draw, which logically makes the odds for that combined outcome lower than for either outcome on its own. Through the Bet Builder you can combine markets within the same match into a ticket, for example a specific match result together with an over/under market, which affects the odds of the combination compared with each individual selection. Every market has its own logic, but the underlying principle always stays the same: the lower the odds, the more likely the outcome is judged to be, and the higher the odds, the less likely. Want a full overview of how to build a first bet, from choosing a match to confirming your ticket? Our guide to how to bet on the Premier League walks through that step by step. Would you rather build your own assessment of a match first, based on form and statistics, before choosing a market? Our guide to Premier League predictions and tips explains that approach step by step.

Why do odds move during the week?

Odds are not fixed from the moment a match appears on the schedule. They move with new information: an injury update, an expected line-up change, or simply how much is being staked on each outcome in the run-up to the match. In the Premier League, weekly fixture congestion also plays a part: clubs active in the Champions League or Europa League regularly rotate their squad in the days before a league match, which can affect the assessment for that match once the expected line-up becomes clearer. The closer a match gets, the more information is available and the more accurately the odds usually reflect the current situation. That explains why odds on a Monday can differ from the odds just before kick off on a Saturday, without anything being wrong at either point: both are simply assessments based on the information available at that moment, continuously updated as the match approaches. Betting behaviour among other players plays a role too: if a noticeably large share of stakes flows towards a particular outcome, a bookmaker may adjust the odds for that outcome to keep the risk on their own books in balance, separate from anything changing on the pitch.

Live odds during the match

Once a match kicks off, the flow of play itself constantly changes the assessment. A goal, a red card, or simply a team taking control of the game affects live odds very quickly, often faster than a change in the run-up to the match. Live betting follows the same basic principles as pre-match betting: the lower the odds at that moment, the more likely that outcome is judged to be at that point in the match. Some bets also offer the option of Cash Out, where you can settle a running bet early at a value calculated at that moment, rather than waiting for the match to finish. That value depends on how the odds have moved since you placed the bet, and is not a guaranteed or fixed payout. Live odds therefore show a continuously updated assessment of the match, but just as with pre-match odds, every outcome remains possible right up to the final whistle, no matter how one-sided a match may look at a given moment. A team that falls behind can still turn the remaining playing time around completely, and it is precisely that possibility that makes live odds move as much as they do compared with the odds that applied before kick off.

Outright odds: winner and relegation

Alongside odds per match, outright odds also exist, covering the outcome of the entire season: who becomes champion, which clubs get relegated, and who finishes as top scorer. Because an outright market runs across 38 matchdays instead of ninety minutes, those odds usually move more slowly than for an individual match. The underlying logic stays the same though: the implied probability built into the odds reflects the probability assessed at that moment for that outcome across the whole season. Early in the season, the odds for many clubs are still relatively close together, since there are still few results to base the assessment on. As the season progresses and the actual standings become clearer, the odds adjust accordingly. Want to know exactly how title betting, relegation betting and top scorer betting on the Premier League work? Our full guide to outright betting on the Premier League goes deeper into each of these markets, including how the European qualification markets relate to the classic top four or top five rule.

Common misunderstandings about odds

A number of misunderstandings about odds come up regularly. Higher odds do not mean a win is guaranteed: they only mean the bookmaker judges that outcome less likely at that moment, which carries a correspondingly higher risk of loss. Odds are also not an exact representation of the real probability of an outcome: the sum of the implied probabilities of all possible outcomes in a market usually sits a little above 100% with a bookmaker, and the difference is the bookmaker's margin, which is normal across the industry. That does not mean the assessment of an individual outcome is itself wrong, only that the odds together do not add up exactly to 100%. A third misunderstanding is that low odds point to a predictable match: a favourite remains a favourite based on the information available at that moment, but ninety minutes of play can contradict that at any point. Understanding these points means reading odds as an assessment at a given moment, not as a guarantee of a particular outcome. One last common misunderstanding is that odds that moved sharply over the previous few days automatically signal something important: sometimes that is true, but just as often the odds are simply adjusting to normal fluctuation in staking patterns, without any new information about the match itself behind it.

Check the current Premier League odds at Napoleon Sports

Want to see the actual current odds for the Premier League for yourself? Check the full, current Premier League offer at Napoleon Sports, from the classic match odds to over/under, handicap and outright markets. Napoleon Sports holds a licence from the Belgian Gaming Commission, guaranteeing a legal, regulated betting environment for players aged 21 and over. Create an account, download the app from the App Store or Google Play, and check our current Premier League promotions and welcome offers in the offers section. Through the app you follow the odds live, including during the match itself, and place your bets from your smartphone at any moment of the day. That way you can put the logic on this page straight into practice on the real, current Premier League offer. For players aged 21 and over only.

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